Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said there were visible signs of revival in the economy but the GDP growth may be in the negative zone or near zero in the current fiscal.
Indian companies are generating more cash than ever. The net cash flow from listed firms' operations hit a new high of Rs 11.1 trillion in financial year 2023-24 (FY24), crossing the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data going back to 1990-91. The FY24 figure represents a 19.3 per cent jump over the previous year, even as quite a few companies are yet to release their numbers.
Technology evolution forces private players to downsize operations.
The rupee had closed barely steady at 63.75 on Wednesday.
The RBI's decision to tighten norms for unsecured personal loans is credit positive because lenders will need to allocate higher capital for such loans, thus improving their loss-absorbing buffers, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday. The Reserve Bank last week raised risk weights on unsecured retail loans, credit cards and lending to non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) by 25 percentage points. Moody's said unsecured loans have been growing rapidly in the past few years, exposing financial institutions to a potential spike in credit costs in case of sudden economic or interest rate shocks.
'If their allocation to certain segments have become high due to strong returns over the past three-four years, they should rebalance their portfolios and bring them in line with their long-term asset allocation.'
Equity benchmarks eked out marginal gains to settle in the positive zone after swinging between gains and losses during the session on Wednesday amid weakness in global bourses. In a trade marked with highs and lows, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 54.13 points or 0.09 per cent to settle at 59,085.43. During the day, it hit a high of 59,170.87 and a low of 58,760.09. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty went up by 27.45 points or 0.16 per cent to 17,604.95.
'Banks may find small ticket size lending economically unviable due to the cost of branch operations.'
It said the recovery is constrained by ongoing human and economic cost of Covid-19 pandemic and negative impact of food price inflation on private consumption. The report said India, which experienced a contraction of 7 per cent in 2020, showed a strong quarterly growth of 1.9 per cent growth in the first quarter 2021 on the back of the momentum of the second half of 2020 and supported by government spending in goods and services.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
For fast-moving consumer goods, growth is likely to be tepid.
China's GDP took the worst hit since the disastrous Cultural Revolution in 1976, plummeting by 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 as the country took unprecedented measures to fight the coronavirus pandemic that brought the world's second largest economy to a standstill. China's gross domestic product stood at 20.65 trillion yuan (USD 2.91 trillion, approx) in the first quarter of 2020 amid the Covid-19 impact, down 6.8 per cent year on year, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday.
India's GDP expanded 13.5 per cent in the April-June quarter, the quickest pace in a year, to retain the world's fastest growing economy tag but rising interest costs and the looming threat of a recession in major world economies could slow the momentum in the coming quarters.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
'The top five IT giants are not hiring, but most of the freshers want to start their careers with the top five IT firms.' 'In today's scenario this is a challenge.'
India's projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over two per cent to 4.6% by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability, according to a UN report released on Thursday. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report downgraded its global economic growth projection for 2022 to 2.6 per cent from 3.6 per cent due to shocks from the Ukraine war and changes in macroeconomic policies that put developing countries particularly at risk. The report said while Russia will experience a deep recession this year, significant slowdowns in growth are expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South and South-East Asia.
Riding on a bull run, equity investors became richer by Rs 128.77 lakh crore in the 2023-24 fiscal, driven by robust fundamentals of the Indian economy, increased investment inflows and promising corporate earnings. After a muted performance in 2022-23, equity markets made a remarkable recovery in FY24, giving handsome returns to investors. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in 2023-24.
Moody's said fiscal measures undertaken by the government -- such as corporate tax rate cuts, bank recapitalisation, infrastructure spending plans, support for the auto sector and others -- do not directly address widespread weakness in consumption demand, which has been the chief driver of the economy. In addition, interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India are not being adequately transmitted to lending rates because of the credit squeeze caused by disruption in the non-bank financial sector, it said.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pulled out over Rs 10,000 crore from Indian equities in the first three weeks of September, primarily due to rising US interest rates, recessionary fears, and overvalued domestic stocks. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period. Mayank Mehra, smallcase, manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha,believes that strong economic growth prospects, attractive valuations, and government reforms could support foreign investment flows in the next month.
The other prominent gainers were Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro. Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
Stating that recent agriculture reforms have opened new opportunities, the RBI Governor said the farm sector is emerging as a bright spot.
Some of India's largest companies have seen a slowdown in the growth of temporary, contract and casual jobs, as compared to the increase in their total workforce. The absolute number of such jobs is up 30 per cent between financial year 2017-18 and 2021-22 (FY18-22), shows an analysis of data collated from the annual reports of S&P BSE 100 companies. Forty-eight firms were considered for the final analysis based on the availability of uniform data across the last five years. In comparison, the total workforce numbers are up 36 per cent in the same period.
Investors' wealth grew by Rs 3.24 lakh crore on Thursday as the BSE Sensex jumped nearly 1 per cent after a two-day slide. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 490.97 points or 0.69 per cent to settle at 71,847.57. During the day, it rallied 598.19 points or 0.83 per cent to 71,954.79.
The second-quarter GDP numbers are scheduled to be announced on Friday.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 47,148 crore in the Indian equities in June, making it the highest inflow in 10 months, enthused by the country's steadily improving macroeconomic fundamentals. However, inflows in July may be subdued as FPIs might adopt cautious stance due to the recent comments from the US Federal Reserve, Mayank Mehraa, Smallcase manager and principal partner at financial consultancy Craving Alpha, said. Besides, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said FPIs are likely to turn a bit cautious going forward as valuations in the country are rich from a short-term perspective.
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
The current spurt in the stock market is on account of strong fundamentals and robust corporate earnings and retail investors can look for buying opportunities to accumulate quality stocks, experts said.
Healthcare has become one of the largest sectors of the Indian economy and is expected to reach $372 billion in 2022, according to a report by Niti Aayog released on Tuesday. The report outlined a range of investment opportunities in the country's healthcare sector across hospitals, pharmaceuticals and medical devices. The report, titled 'Investment Opportunities in India's Healthcare Sector', also said India's healthcare sector has the potential to generate 27 lakh jobs in India between 2017 and 2022 -- over 5 lakh new jobs per year.
In a rare face off, captains of the auto industry have hit out at the government for not walking the talk. At an industry event in the capital on Wednesday, R C Bhargava, chairman of India's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki, and Venu Srinivasan, chairman of TVS Motor, questioned the government's intent to support the auto sector. Revenue secretary Tarun Bajaj sat in the audience listening, before his turn came to counter them.
'While the country has been hit hard from a strong second wave of Covid, we believe the markets are willing to look through that.'
The agency welcomed the Rs 1.70-lakh crore package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman earlier in the day but said more measures like loan forbearances for small businesses and households are necessary.
'It will dictate the flow of funds into the index. We will maintain caution on mid/smallcaps.'
Those hardest hit by the second wave of the pandemic have been blue-collared workers, doctors and healthcare workers, law and order and municipal personnel, individuals eking out daily livelihood, and small businesses. And there should be more measures taken to alleviate their pain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. The report also indicated that the RBI's growth numbers might have to be revisited as the central bank's real GDP growth projection of 26.2 per cent given in the MPC's resolution of April 7 for the first quarter of 2021-22, were "made before the full fury of the resurgence." Nevertheless, the "resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1: 2021-22.
Corporate India reported high double-digit growth in net profit for the fourth consecutive quarter in October-December 2023 (Q3FY24), driven by margin gains from lower prices of raw material and energy.
The earnings of India Inc hit a record high in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4), compared with their poor showing in the previous two quarters of the financial year. The rise in earnings, however, is exclusively led by banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) companies. A better-than-expected showing by banks and non-bank lenders in Q4FY23 more than compensated for the earnings contraction in the non-BFSI space.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pumped in Rs 43,838 crore in Indian equities in May, the highest level in nine months, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and reasonable valuations. FPIs continued the buying stance in June too, and invested Rs 6,490 crore in just two trading sessions of the month, data with the repositories showed. VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said that inflow by FPIs will continue in the current month since the latest GDP data and high-frequency indicators reflect a robust economy gaining further strength.
There was no smooth surge in middle class prosperity for foreign businesses to tap into because of the Indian economy was mismanaged, argues Debashis Basu.
Once tipped to emerge as the biggest exporter, the pharmaceutical industry is yet to acquire the scale of those in software services, says Krishna Kant.
Among the Sensex firms, Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports sustained their gaining momentum and traded higher by 4.40 per cent and 4.37 per cent, respectively. BPCL, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra and SBI were the other major gainers. On the other hand, HCL Tech, Infosys and Bajaj Auto traded in the negative zone with a loss of up to 1.54 per cent.
